Without Medicare for All the Health Expenditures GDP will Rise from 17.9% in 2017 to 19.4% by 2027

NHE Fact Sheet

Historical NHE, 2018:

  • NHE grew 4.6% to $3.6 trillion in 2018, or $11,172 per person, and accounted for 17.7% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
  • Medicare spending grew 6.4% to $750.2 billion in 2018, or 21 percent of total NHE.
  • Medicaid spending grew 3.0% to $597.4 billion in 2018, or 16 percent of total NHE.
  • Private health insurance spending grew 5.8% to $1,243.0 billion in 2018, or 34 percent of total NHE.
  • Out of pocket spending grew 2.8% to $375.6 billion in 2018, or 10 percent of total NHE.
  • Hospital expenditures grew 4.5% to $1,191.8 billion in 2018, slower than the 4.7% growth in 2017.
  • Physician and clinical services expenditures grew 4.1% to $725.6 billion in 2018, a slower growth than the 4.7% in 2017.
  • Prescription drug spending increased 2.5% to $335.0 billion in 2018, faster than the 1.4% growth in 2017.
  • The largest shares of total health spending were sponsored by the federal government (28.3 percent) and the households (28.4 percent).   The private business share of health spending accounted for 19.9 percent of total health care spending, state and local governments accounted for 16.5 percent, and other private revenues accounted for 6.9 percent.

Projected NHE, 2018-2027:

  • Under current law, national health spending is projected to grow at an average rate of 5.5 percent per year for 2018-27 and to reach nearly $6.0 trillion by 2027.
  • Health spending is projected to grow 0.8 percentage point faster than Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per year over the 2018-27 period; as a result, the health share of GDP is expected to rise from 17.9 percent in 2017 to 19.4 percent by 2027.
  • Key economic and demographic factors fundamental to the health sector are anticipated to be the major drivers during 2018-27.
  • Prices for health care goods and services are projected to grow somewhat faster over 2018-27 (2.5 percent compared to 1.1 percent for 2014-17).
  • As a result of comparatively higher projected enrollment growth, average annual spending growth in Medicare (7.4 percent) is expected to exceed that of Medicaid (5.5 percent) and private health insurance (4.8 percent).    
  • The Medicare enrollment impacts are the key reason the share of health care spending sponsored by federal, state, and local governments is expected to increase by 2 percentage points over the projection period, reaching 47 percent by 2027.
  • The insured share of the population is expected to remain stable at around 90 percent throughout 2018-27.

NHE by Age Group and Gender, Selected Years 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014:

  • Per person personal health care spending for the 65 and older population was $19,098 in 2014, over 5 times higher than spending per child ($3,749) and almost 3 times the spending per working-age person ($7,153).
  • In 2014, children accounted for approximately 24 percent of the population and about 11 percent of all PHC spending.
  • The working-age group comprised the majority of spending and population in 2014, almost 54 percent and over 61 percent respectively.
  • The elderly were the smallest population group, nearly 15 percent of the population, and accounted for approximately 34 percent of all spending in 2014.
  • Per person spending for females ($8,811) was 21 percent more than males ($7,272) in 2014.
  • In 2014, per person spending for male children (0-18) was 9 percent more than females.  However, for the working age and elderly groups, per person spending for females was 26 and 7 percent more than for males.

Source: https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/NHE-Fact-Sheet
NHE Fact Sheet, CMS.gov, Page Last Modified: 12/05/2019 06:18 PM

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